It is my belief that there will be no DH in the NL for 2021. Yes, MLB did tell teams to treat it as if there would be no DH offseason. One can take this as a negotiation tactic, but I believe it is the sign of a larger issue. Last season, the owners (MLB) and the MLBPA had issues in negotiations (often referred to as the millionaires vs the billionaires). Unfortunately, they decided to make the issues public and alienate fans. This year, they SMARTLY decided they would keep the negotiations behind closed doors. Both sides have given us some signals though on where they currently stand.
MLB has stated they want to delay the start of the season, so (more) fans can be in the stands. There have been a few teams cutting payroll heavily this offseason citing major financial losses for the year. Only the Atlanta Braves show their books and it looks like they did not lose as much as has been stated by MLB (fangraphs article). The MLBPA stated they are ready and preparing for a full 162 game season since the 2020 season was manageable. MLB is now “planning” on a full season. For these stances to become public, it shows me they are fighting again. MLB will take every opportunity they can to delay the season. The Cleveland Indians were planning to start having players show up in small waves to their spring training facility this week. MLB told teams they are not allowed to do this yet. Just like 2020, the longer MLB can delay players arriving to camp, the more they will be “forced” to delay the season. They have the advantage and only need to drag their feet to get what they want (like they did in 2020). There will be COVID restrictions and they will happily delay where possible.
With a new CBA agreement needed for 2022, both sides don’t want to give anything up right now and just hold their cards. What cards can the MLBPA play? Not many. Their big card is revenue sharing followed by expanded playoffs, a shortened (plus prorated) season, and an international draft (these are the ones that come to mind at the moment). The MLBPA has shown that they don’t care much for players before they are members in the majors and I do not think the international draft will net them 15 (partial) jobs. Many teams can utilize the DH spot as a rest day for regulars or guys they will already carry on their roster. To me, the tradeoff for a DH looks lopsided in MLB’s favor if they get the expanded playoffs.
We need to hang onto our hats, because this will be a bumpy ride. It looks like both sides are going to dig in and not give anything up.