2021 TGFBI Recap and Analysis

2021 was my second year competing in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). The shortened 2020 season found my team just outside the top 100. I could not grind out the season to climb up the standings. My plan entering the 2021 draft was to be a little more conservative and not go after the prospects or outlier 2020 seasons. since inning expectations and projections varied wildly. Below is a chart of guys I highlighted might be available based on ADP along with my actual picks for each round.

RoundPre Draft and During Draft TargetsPlayers Left @ PickActual
1Yelich/Cole/J RamirezCole/J RamirezCole
2Mondesi/Harper/Bichette/MachadoBichette/MachadoMachado
3Tim Anderson/SpringerAnderson/SpringerAnderson
4Realmuto/Springer/Judge/Burnes/HendriksJudge/Burnes/HendriksHendriks
5Suarez/K Marte/StrasburgAll 3Suarez
6S Perez/Blackmon/AltuveAll 3Perez
7Wheeler/Greinke/AltuveAll 3Greinke
8Morton/ValdezBothMorton
9d’Arnaud/Edman/Stanton/F ReyesAll 4Edman
10Kimbrel/V Robles/Stanton/SolerKimbrel/SolerKimbrel
11P/1B/Hoskins/Kimbrel/SolerHoskins/SolerSoler
12McCutchen/SeguraMcCutchen/SeguraMcCutchen
13Urquidy/Kluber/EflinEflinEflin
14Cain/Wong/Lux/J Hicks/C Walker/Benintendi Cain/Wong/LuxLux
15Cron/Cain/Wong/Lux/A Hicks/CL/VaughnCron/Cain/A HicksCain
16A Hicks/A Garcia/Peralta/VaughnA Hicks/A Garcia/PeraltaA Hicks
17A Garcia/Peralta (w.m.i.p 20)/Votto/Cron/E HernandezA Garcia/Peralta/VottoPeralta
18P/Votto/C/RamosBothRamos
19Schoop/Votto/W CalhounAll 3W Calhoun
20Schoop/VottoBothVotto
21Hilliard/Eaton/M Keller/Skubal/Lindblom/RayAll but LindblomRay
22Hilliard/M KellerBothHilliard
23Ray/Cease0E White
24Y GarciaY GarciaBritton
25P/PillarPillarWittgren
26P/Rainey/ShogoBothHapp
27MiggyMiggyFoltynewicz
28POsuna
29POdor
30PF Valdez

Round 1: I did not think Cole would fall to me so I was planning on a bounce back season from Yelich or I was going to fill my 3b with Jose Ramirez since 3b was a weak position. Cole fell and I was happy to take him.

Round 2: One plan of attack was to shoot for the moon and try to get 60+ stolen bases. JB Branson took away that choice by taking Mondesi. Bichette and Machado were the only targets left at my pick. The whole time I was on the clock I was deciding if I go with the less than 1 full season worth of AB for Bichette or take the safety in Machado and fill 3b. Machado it was.

Round 3: Both Anderson and Springer were here. I wanted the steals so took Anderson.

Round 4: With Realmuto gone my main options were Judge, Burnes and Hendriks. I decided to get a “safe” closer in Hendriks so I would not need to chase them later.

Round 5: With surgery a year behind him, I thought Suarez would bounce back to a .260-.270 average. Man, was I wrong. This one really hurt my teams batting average until I started to bench him after a couple of months. It might have cost 2 spots in the overall.

Round 6: Targets of Salvador Perez, Blackmon and Altuve were all there. I decided to take Perez and see if I could get 2 higher end catchers to gain an advantage over the rest of the league/competition. He alone almost exceeded what most teams catchers did combined. A pleasant surprise.

Round 7: I needed another pitcher so Wheeler and Greinke were my options. I did not fully trust Wheeler so went with the expected volume of Greinke.

Round 8: I wanted to grab another pitcher here and was looking at Morton and Valdez. I decided to take the track record with Morton and thinking they would not hold back his innings due to his age and contract. The next day Valdez was out for awhile. A near miss.

Round 9: Options of d’Arnaud, Edman, Stanton and F Reyes were all there. I really wanted Stanton, but decided to get the steals with Edman.

Round 10: Kimbrel and Soler were the only targets left. I needed the power but took Kimbrel so I had 2 solid closers so I would not have to chase them in FAAB.

Round 11: Soler was still there so I took his power. This did not work. He sucked to start the year and I dropped him right before he warmed up.

Round 12: I needed an outfielder so I went with McCutchen. He had a sneaky good season before his injury in 2019 and did well in 2020. He struggled with lefties this year.

Round 13: I wanted another pitcher and Eflin was the only target left on the board.

Round 14: Time to get a little speed or fill MI with Cain, Wong or Lux. I knew Lux would not get past Khang Do so I went upside. I thought there was a chance Wong would make it back to me.

Round 15: Nope. Wong was taken. I went for the old but 10/30/.270 potential of Cain. Injuries derailed these targets but he had a pace that was close.

Round 16: Another outfielder. I did not think Hicks would make it back. I also thought he had a higher upside.

Round 17: Another outfielder. I went with Peralta projecting a higher batting average.

Round 18: I did not fill my higher end C2 earlier. I thought Ramos would get some counting stats and not hurt my average.

Round 19: Another outfielder. Calhoun had a sneaky good 2019 and was probably mentally derailed in 2020. Injuries did not help in 2021. The change in ball and park might have squashed the 30+ HR potential.

Round 20: Still needed a 1b, so Votto it was. His change in approach was nice.

Round 21: Ray was throwing a lot of strikes in spring training. Since this has been his problem, I took a shot at his upside.

Round 22: Hilliard was a swing for the fences pick. A lot of people commented that they wanted to take him. The pick struck out, just like Hilliard does.

Round 23: With no targets on the board, I wanted to backup Votto with someone that can play 1b. Evan White had upside and I thought playing time since he is a good fielder.

Round 24: Instead of taking a shot at a possible closer, I took a sneaky shot at 3 days as closer to start the season for Britton. A injury eliminated this possibility.

Round 25: Cleveland’s had questions at closer and I took a shot that Wittgren might claim it.

Round 26: A pitching streamer with Happ.

Round 27: And another one with Foltynewicz.

Round 28: A lottery ticket for a high end closer in Osuna did not pay out. I think his run in MLB might be over (blackballed).

Round 29: Odor would allow for roster flexibility and some HR/SB possibility.

Round 30: Since Framber Valdez’s timeline was still a little questionable, I took a 1 month IL discount on the what was 8th rounder.

Season Results

After 60 games, my team was somewhere around 100 overall. My team’s average was horrible thanks to Suarez and Soler. I picked up Nicky Lopez to help this. His stolen bases were a nice plus. The pitching staff was doing well. I had 3 solid closers with Hendriks, Kimbrel and Graveman going into the trade deadline. After the deadline, I only had 1. Pickups of Luis Garcia (Houston), Michael Fulmer, Lane Thomas, Abraham Toro and Daulton Varsho helped me grind up in the standings to win the league and finish 12th overall.

What would I change for 2022? Not a ton. I will keep an eye on my batting average sooner in the draft. If they don’t get hits, all of the counting categories will be affected as well. Since drafters are targeting high end closers and catchers right now (mostly draft and holds for now), I might pivot away and pick up higher end hitting. Plans are still being formulated.